Fed’s Continued Easing Trumps Slow Growth | Stock Market Rally End?

MomentumRider.com — Sun, 05 May 2013 00:45:30 +0000

Fed’s Continued Easing Trumps Slow Growth | Stock Market Rally End?

This blog focuses on how the stock market investor’s view of Fed easing continues to trump the slow growth of the U.S. and of most companies. The first of May did have some selling that started early in the morning before the Fed minutes were released. But just as Bernanke has done so many times in the last few years, he continued his stance of more bond buying and very low interest rates for the foreseeable future.

There is no doubt that early May selling was due to some investor hedging in case any hint of a Fed course change was coming. It was also a classic technical analysis double-top setup at 1,600 that some hedge funds undoubtedly bet on. However, true to form, Bernanke gave the large investors and bulls what they wanted yet again with a stock market green light. Then, when a better than expected jobs report and positive revisions were released on Friday, it gave the bulls their needed ammunition to breakout and squeeze the shorts.

Since the beginning of last week, the market was led higher by technology stocks, energy stocks, and materials. These are all sectors that were very weak from mid-March through most of April. The financials and transports need to start joining in this rally if it is to have some staying power.

There were 165,000 non-farm payrolls created in April, above the consensus 145,000 expected, and the unemployment rate fell to 7.5%. Revisions to previous reports were also positive including a 50,000 increase in March, and the February report was revised up by 64,000.But other growth data released Friday continues to be indicative of slowing growth. The ISM non-manufacturing index fell to 53.1, the lowest level since last July, and factory orders fell four percent in March. That is more than the three percent decline economists had expected.

The bottom line is that so far in 2013, investors are putting dollars in the stock market based on the Fed’s easing policy and not really on the prospects for growth. But at some point soon, the “fundamental investors” may get the upper hand by sending the market a dose of reality with some selling. Ultimately, the companies and countries must show growth to sustain a rally well into the Summer. And, based on lower revenue reports by most companies, along with weak forecasts, it still seems that the rally should be coming to an end.

MR’s reading has changed from neutral last week to slightly bullish after the breakout, but it must hold 1,600 this week. Otherwise, it is a bearish signal to have a FAILED BREAKOUT and the 5% or more correction may finally get underway.

If the market is somehow able to continue its climb, then MR would recommend looking at the new money rotation sectors of technology, select emerging market stocks, energy, and materials for making some long trades. Otherwise, hold tight until the financials and transports join the rally to prove more staying power, or wait till after the next correction before adding more equity exposure.

Gold, silver, agriculture, and base metals (steel stocks, copper stocks) could also provide some areas for investors to nibble at. In fact, copper had a huge short squeeze and was up 5.5% on Friday.

One final recommendation MR is providing this week for investors is to be very watchful of any Fed comment changes in the future. If and when the Fed stops buying all of the US’s bonds and slows down on their easing, the stock market will deflate its “artificial bubble.” Even Warren Buffet recently provided a prediction of a sell-off when the Fed takes its foot off the pedal. The only real question is not if but when it will start.

Humorous note: The fact that Warren Buffet started sending out his first tweets could also be the sign of a market top in the near term … He said that he might even try a cellphone next…

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Stock Market Bounce Near | Strong Market Seasonality

MomentumRider.com — Sun, 11 Nov 2012 00:30:27 +0000

Stock Market Bounce Near | Strong Market Seasonality

This blog discusses the possibility of a stock market bounce coming based on strong market seasonality. The stock market sent a clear message after Obama’s win last week that they don’t care for his no-growth policies for four more years. In addition, investors were focusing on the looming fiscal cliff.and on a very weak Europe in the midst of a recession. Even Germany is starting to express concern that the next few quarters will be a real struggle and Europe had a very poor Friday.

The major U.S. indexes broke through key support levels last week (200 SMAs), and they are on the brink of additional pain if they don’t recover this week (see charts below). One of the most important trendlines for computer programs is the 200 SMA.

Once the S&P 500 gives way without a bounce or with a strong breakdown below its 200 SMA, then the bears will dominate the action.This is a “danger zone” for investors and for intermediate term traders because the selling could get worse in the next few weeks.

This week is a very important technical week for the markets and for the bulls. Without a very big volume day up or a recovery back above the 200 SMA (like in early June 2012), it could be a rough next few weeks. There is no question that the volatility will spike on any sign of the key trendlines being broken further.

The only optimistic side of the current picture is that the markets are entering their strongest season for making gains historically. The second half of November, December, and the first part of January are statistically a very good time to be long in the market. The institutions need a wake-up call for chasing year-end performance, pushing the markets up for their year-end bonuses, and for believing in a fiscal cliff agreement or postponement.

This week investors will be watching a number of key figures due out including retail sales, FOMC minutes on November 14, jobless claims, the consumer price index on November 15, and the industrial production reports expected on November 16. But most importantly, the computer programs will be set on SELL if the key trendlines are broken.

Unfortunately, with the big investor darling Apple, Inc. (AAPL) really struggling, the markets are in the hands of the bears. Note how quickly and far Apple fell once the 200 SMA was broken. The markets will not be any different.

MR discussed the need for the markets to hold 1,422 and then 1,384 on Wednesday night’s blog and those levels were easily broken at the end of the week after Obama’s win. So remain cautious but also be ready for any big surprise reversal day this week because the bulls could fight back to finish up 2012.

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Obama Win Spurs Stock Trading Bears

MomentumRider.com — Wed, 07 Nov 2012 00:23:42 +0000

Obama Win Spurs Stock Trading Bears

This blog discusses the fact that Obama’s win has spurred the stock trading bears to life. MR forecasted a huge swing in the markets around the Presidential election and that is exactly what happened. The markets were up a decent amount on Monday and then were absolutely slammed today after the Obama win. It was a selling spree in every category and a few like oil and coal were crushed today.

Nothing has changed on our overall view from Sunday. Today’s selloff was expected and it may take a bit more time for the markets to stabilize.

Reprint from Sunday night:

MR’s stance is that the S&P 500 needs to hold 1,385 to 1,390, and if it does, then it should be time to buy. There will likely be a rally to finish the year after the post-election market swings die down.

The commodities also took a big hit on Friday because any future QE scale back would be negative for gold, silver, and oil. However, that perception could be short lived after the election so the recent pullback should probably be bought for investors. Make no mistake about it, silver, gold, and oil will all have nice gains for the patient investors holding more than 3 years.

Take a look at buying AAPL below $575 for an intermediate trade, and wait till after the election to buy some energy, silver, or gold ETFs or their related stocks.

We are sticking with our recommendations from Sunday night. Look to buy later this week or early next week. However, the market needs to hold the 200 SMA near 1,384 or we may change our mind on a rebound. The fiscal cliff seems to have investors on edge right now and the bears may seize control.

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Stock Market Investors on Edge | QE Quandry

MomentumRider.com — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 00:20:14 +0000

Stock Market Investors on Edge | QE Quandry

This blog discusses the quantitative easing has stock market investors on edge. The last week was shortened due to Hurricane Sandy. The devastation in the Northeast US was enormous and the effects will last for six months or longer as they try to rebound and recover. It definitely cast a somber tone to the markets and to rattled investors in general.

Despite Wednesday’s up day after being oversold and getting a bounce, Thursday was flat. But the big surprise came on Friday when the better than expected jobs’ number actually had many institutions selling and selling aggressively across the board. This behavior surprised many some investors after a positive jobs number.

However, MR believes the reason for selling was simple, the better things get, the lower the chance of continuing the quantitative easing and Fed interventions. Keep in mind that most of the move up in the markets has been due to QE programs, and now continuing QE may be called into question. That is why sellers came into the market on Friday and why the markets reversed sharply after an initial bump up after the report came out.

Obviously, there are going to be many cross-currents coming this next week, especially from the US Presidential election. The market swings could be big when either Romney or Obama wins. Some sectors could be big winners and some could be big losers depending on the outcome. In addition, the final resolution of the winner removes the uncertainty for investors and that could have a big effect.

There is no doubt that numerous stocks have taken a beating in recent weeks, especially AAPL, which is one of the market bellwethers. It also carries a large weighting in the indexes.

The threat of QE being pulled back has many investors stuck in a quandry between selling in case QE is scaled back, to buying for the best 2 months of the year. Some research studies suggest that hedge funds are positioned to start buying. And the numerous funds that have underperformed this year may have to start buying in order to try and beat their benchmarks.

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Stock Market Trouble | Presidential Election Jitters

MomentumRider.com — Sun, 28 Oct 2012 00:02:38 +0000

Stock Market Trouble | Presidential Election Jitters

This blog discusses the potential for stock market trouble due to presidential election jitters. As we detailed on Wednesday, the key 1,425 level on the S&P 500 finally gave way this week and the bears are fully in control. The S&P 500 moved down near the 1,400 support as MR forecasted and we can’t rule out more selling to 1,385 (150 SMA) or even 1,375 (200 SMA) before it is done. But there could be hope for the bulls coming soon.

The market is technically oversold at the current level and their is a potential for a Presidential election correction. Remember that markets typically sell down when there is uncertainty. The more uncertainty that investors see in the future, the more selling that takes place. There is a lot of anxiety centered around the fiscal cliff and who will win the US Presidential election and world-wide growth is at a standstill.

When investors factor those unknowns in with a poor earnings season, the result is a pullback which the markets are in the middle of right now. The best way to cure uncertainty is to get clarity which will happen in part after the Presidential race is concluded. But there is potential for a correction if Obama wins.

There is no doubt that many investors and large institutions are hoping for a pro-business win by Mitt Romney. If Obama ends up winning, MR believes that there will be a correction once the election is over. In other words, even if institutions favor one candidate’s policies over another, an Obama win will not be good for the market.

In addition, having the Presidential race finally over will allow the Congress to focus on resolving the fiscal cliff issue which will is still a big issue. We don’t believe there is any way that the fiscal cliff will happen without at least a postponement to address it at a later date.

Investors are still encouraged to ride out any selling at this point with two typically good months coming up in November and December. The markets are technically oversold which often leads to a bounce relief rally that squeezes short sellers. Also, the seasonality strength of markets could provide bulls the support they need.

A brief rally happened in the early session of Friday but Apple’s selling stalled the gains. It was a big volume reversal day for Apple off the bottom near $590 and its 200 SMA which could boost the markets to start the week. As we told our subscribers over the last few weeks, traders should be scaling into Apple Inc. (AAPL) near $600 and apparently others agreed with us.

Apple Inc. Could Hold the Key to the Bulls

If Romney starts to get a lead in the polls up till Nov. 2, the markets could have a good week for investors front-running a win. Based on our prediction of an oversold bounce rally, we are giving the slight edge to the bulls this week. After that, the bears could take over.

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Technical Analysis | Key Stock Market Breakdown

MomentumRider.com — Wed, 24 Oct 2012 23:49:21 +0000

Technical Analysis | Key Stock Market Breakdown

The all important technical analysis price level of 1,425 on the stock market (S&P 500) finally gave way this week and the bears are fully in control. The next stop is 1,400 on the way to a potentially bigger correction that could hit 1,375 (200 SMA) before it is done. Technology has been extremely weak since mid September and the transports have been weak since Spring.

The problems with China and Europe finally caught up to the US’s company earnings and this season has been particularly hard hit. The Fed’s release today provided some volatility but in all it didn’t amount to much. The near term picture remains a focus on poor earnings and the potential for a re-election of Obama coming in a few weeks.

The third debate results had a slight edge to Obama which seemed to spook many investors. The little bump up earlier for a Romney upset has been all but erased in the last few days. Another Obama win would have investors selling commodities and the markets into the mid part of November.

Investors are still encouraged to ride out any selling at this point with two typically good months coming up in November and December. However, protecting your gains with some put options or inverse ETF’s in the short term may be a wise move.

Gold broke down thru its 50 SMA, oil prices are dropping, and the markets are in trouble in the short term. The only positive is that the markets are technically oversold which often leads to a bounce relief rally that squeezes short sellers. This should happen to end the week or on Monday and it could last a few days or so before more selling occurs.

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Big Cap Earnings Disappoint | Trading Range Important | Gold

MomentumRider.com — Sun, 21 Oct 2012 20:07:11 +0000

Big Cap Earnings Disappoint | Trading Range Important | Gold

The bulls were disappointed from poor earnings and the trading range will be tested yet again at the key 1,425 support area on the S&P 500. It was a decent stock market week but a very bad Friday with aggressive selling from poor earnings. There were numerous large cap multi-national companies that had very disappointing earnings to end the week.

Here are just few of the casualties late in the week: MCD, GOOG, INTC, IBM, GE, and MSFT. They saw very big selling and AAPL was weak as well even though they have yet to report earnings. As MR forecasted going into earnings’ season, it was setup for a very rough start and may have more weakness in finishing off the month.

Another big market driver in the near term is the US Presidential election. Romney has been gaining ground and the weekend polls have it almost a dead heat. The final debate is this week and it could swing the markets depending on the outcome.

Key Stock Market Test This Week – Trading Range Battleground Area 1,415 to 1,435

The potential breakdown from a double top “M” is back in play again on a breach below 1,420 on the S&P 500. Traders need to lighten up if the market holds below 1,420 more than a day.

Gold is also on the verge of breaking down below its 50 SMA, so its bullish intermediate trend is in question with the markets. This could be another big week technically for the precious metals and the markets so stay tuned.

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Bulls Bounce Back – 1,425 and 50 SMA Provide Trading Bounce

MomentumRider.com — Tue, 16 Oct 2012 19:54:46 +0000

Bulls Bounce Back – 1,425 and 50 SMA Provide Trading Bounce

The bulls were tested by hitting the strong support on the S&P 500 at 1,425 and they passed with flying colors. It has been a nice bounce of several % and the market is back into the middle of the trading range again.

Apple has steadied and some of the commodities have seen a strong bounce. Some investors may be betting on a surprise upset of Obama which would be a big boost across the board and especially in energy and oil stocks.

Key Market Test This Week – Bearish Double Top “M” Formation

The potential big breakdown from a double top “M” has been averted for now. Investors can breathe a temporary sigh of relief and traders can look to swing trade longs again.

Let’s see how strong the bulls run is and continue to stay tuned for any updates.

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Key Market Test This Week | 1,422 on the S&P 500

MomentumRider.com — Sun, 14 Oct 2012 02:16:50 +0000

Key Market Test This Week | 1,422 on the S&P 500

Just as MR forecasted last week, the market is moving lower to test the bottom of the trading range near 1,422 on the S&P 500. This support test will be critical for the bulls to hold their position or the bears will strike hard from here.

It has been a very rough last six days as markets moved into earnings season. Apple Inc. (AAPL) has been acting very weak and the general markets have followed it down with selling pressure. From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 is sitting exactly on the 50 SMA trendline as the chart below shows. Testing the strength of the 50 SMA support and then testing the 1,422 multiple support line will be very important price tests this week.

As an aside, it is no coincidence that the market finished right on top of the 50 SMA trendline to the penny!! Those that do not use technical analysis do so at their own financial peril. Hopefully MR has convinced everybody that reads our newsletters that technical analysis is a very powerful tool that should be used frequently to manage both your trading and investing.

Key Market Test This Week – Bearish Double Top “M” Formation

Depending on what happens in the battle near 1,422 in the next few days will determine a lot on how October finishes up. Unfortunately for bullish investors, there is a very negative technical pattern that has formed called a double top “M”. A high volume breakdown below the 1,422 area would confirm this bearish pattern is in full force and more selling would happen – probably at a fast rate. The next support level is near 1,400 below that.

For the bulls to fight back this week, AAPL needs to find some buyers soon. Apple Inc is a good indicator of how big money views the market and right now the situation is negative.

Gold and silver have been weak lately along with the markets and may fall farther in the short term. We are still a holder of both with the belief that the end of the year will see some more upside.

As MR has said throughout October in our newsletters, a confirmed breakdown of the marketsbelow 1,425 would trigger a “technical sell signal” for our system in many of our trading portfolios. This sell signal would mean selling many higher beta stocks on the order of 15 to 20% or so. If the selling accelerates it would cause us to consider selling even more along with buying some PUT protection and inverse ETF protection for a few weeks or more.

This is an important technical week that needs a close watch by traders. On the plus side, investors may not have to wait long for a turnaround because most years have good November and December months. It may be a painful next few weeks but the probabilities are on the bullish side for the last 6 weeks of the year.

Because of the bearish bias heading into the week, MR will not be making any long buy recommendations tonight.

Let’s see how strong the bulls can fight back and continue to stay tuned for any updates.

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Earnings Season Woes | Market Pullback

MomentumRider.com — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 02:05:17 +0000

Earnings Season Woes | Market Pullback

Earnings’ season has started out with numerous disappointments and they are taking their toll on the markets as predicted. Couple the bad earnings with more European debt issues, a potential S&P Spain ratings cut, and general investor jitters for October and you have a market pullback.

And, as MR also warned about, Apple did breakdown below its important 50 SMA which drags the market down and also indicates large investor worries. With AAPL below its 50 SMA and the S&P 500 below its 20 SMA, the markets are technically in some trouble. However, MR would be a buyer of AAPL near the $610 area or lower for investors willing to hold it for a year or more.

Gold and silver are taking a breather as well and oil saw an upside reversal on geopolitical fears. Let’s wait this market out until we get a bounce up off the 1,425 support or have to sell some on a convincing breakdown below it. It will be an important test price for the rest of October.

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Fed’s Continued Easing Trumps Slow Growth | Stock Market Rally End?